When Will They Break Through?
October 12th, 2009 | by Vance |It’s a question we’ve all been asking ourselves; when will this team break through? Now, don’t get me wrong, the Sabres are only 1 of 2 teams that haven’t lost in regulation yet (the Isles the other, but they haven’t won in regulation yet either), and sport a 2-0-1 record, the start most we needed to get with the relatively weak starting schedule.
But only 4 goals, in 3 games, with 116 shots, in only 3 games?!? Not only is it unheard of for a Buffalo Sabres team helmed by Lindy Ruff to be leading the league in shots/game (38.7), but also unheard of for a Buffalo Sabres team to struggle so mightily lighting the lamp.
Of course, I’m not worried, this same team leading the league in shots/game is also leading the league in shots against/game, allowing just 22 a contest. But that’s not the issue, we knew going in that there was going to be a greater emphasis on defensive accountability, so the tighter backchecking was to be expected. But God damn Sabres, put the puck in the net.
Against Montreal, they outshot the Habs 35 to 17. Against Phoenix, they outshot the ‘Yotes 39 to 24. And yes, against Nashville, the Sabres outshot the Preds 42 to 25. So what’s the issue? Let’s take a look.
Lines
At the outset of this season, the top line carried Thomas Vanek (LW) and Tim Connolly (RW) between Derek Roy while Drew Stafford recovered from his concussion symptoms from the preseason. As dynamic as this line should have been, it was one too many playmakers for a single line. With Roy and Connolly both having a penchant for carrying the puck into the zone, holding it, and looking to make plays, the puck never seemed to make it to Vanek before being turned over.
This also created a situation where 2nd year player Tim Kennedy was centering the 2nd line of Clarke MacArthur and Jason Pominville. Now don’t get me wrong, Kennedy will be a top 6 forward in this league, but with so little experience at center, teams were really able to key in on the top line.
These lines changed against Nashville, as Drew Stafford, fully recovered, moved up to the top line, and Connolly slipped back to his 2nd line Center role. But of course, neither broke through, it was the shut down 3rd line of Mike Grier, Jochen Hecht, and the aforementioned Kennedy who managed to solve Pekka Rinne. Which segues nicely into my next point…
Opposing ‘Tenders
Don’t laugh. Yeah, we’ve faced backup netminders in 2 of 3 games. But seriously, Rinne and LaBarbera were damned good. And Carey Price played like early season Carey Price, before the annual meltdown later in the season. But these guys have been good, while both the Coyotes and Predators were unbeaten when we faced them. This isn’t an excuse, but I just wanted to give props to some of the great performances by the opposition. Need more proof?
- #1 Star vs. Montreal – Carey Price
- #2 Star vs. Phoenix – Jason LaBarbera
- #1 Star vs. Nashville – Pekke Rinne
Of course, we can’t put all the blame, lavish praise, whatever, on that. But there is one bad omen for the Sabres that sticks out, which to me, is the greatest factor contributing to the lack of scoring so far this year.
Offensive Zone Faceoffs
We have never been a good faceoff team. Never, ever, ever, ever. So when looking at the faceoff tables for Game 1 here, Game 2 here, and Game 3 here, it isn’t surprising at all to see the utter fail by Sabres pivots in the offensive zone.
The top 4 pivots; Roy, Connolly, Kennedy, and Gaustad will be featured in the following tables. It’s not pretty.
| vs. Montreal | Wins | Losses | Percentage |
| Roy | 1 | 3 | 25% |
| Connolly | 4 | 5 | 44% |
| Kennedy | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Gaustad | 4 | 2 | 67% |
| vs. Phoenix | |||
| Roy | 1 | 4 | 20% |
| Connolly | 3 | 3 | 50% |
| Kennedy | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| Gaustad | 1 | 3 | 25% |
| vs. Nashville | |||
| Roy | 5 | 4 | 56% |
| Connolly | 1 | 3 | 25% |
| Kennedy | 0 | 3 | 0% |
| Gaustad | 3 | 3 | 50% |
So as you can see, that adds up a stunning 23 faceoff wins, 34 losses in the offensive zones for our top 4 centers. That doesn’t even include the inevitable faceoff losses when one of our pivots gets tossed from the circle.
Lindy needs to harp on this. Gaustad is our best faceoff guy, but he’s currently mired on the 4th line, with some time on the PP as well. Between Roy, Connolly, and Kennedy, these guys need to step up in the faceoff dot, and create more scoring chances off faceoff wins in the offensive zone.
A team simply can’t continue winning with a faceoff percentage of just 42% on the season. This needs to change, and soon.
Tags: Buffalo Sabres, Derek Roy, Tim Connolly, Tim Kennedy
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